This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia **Tropical Storm Conditions Expected over Southern Maryland Friday Night Through Early Sunday** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Calvert and St. Marys * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 670 miles south of Washington DC or about 680 miles south of Annapolis MD - 29.2N 75.9W - Storm Intensity 35 mph - Movement North or 360 degrees at 8 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move northward toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Friday before moving northward near the Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday through Sunday. The main threat will be a storm surge with inundation around 2 to 3 feet most likely for locations along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay as well as the shore of the Tidal Potomac River. The highest water levels will be around times of high tide Saturday through Saturday night. Rainfall will most likely average between 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts around 3 to 5 inches possible. The best chance for the highest rainfall amounts will be near and east of Interstate 95. This may result in isolated instances of flooding, especially for low lying and flood prone areas. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. Tropical Storm force winds are most likely over southern Maryland and the nearby waters south of North Beach along the Chesapeake Bay and south of Cobb Island along the Tidal Potomac River. However, gale-force winds are expected along the waters father north along the Chesapeake Bay as well as the Tidal Potomac River. Gusty winds and a saturated ground may cause downed trees and power outages. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia. * FLOODING RAIN: Isolated instances of flooding are possible due to locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for flooding will be in low lying flood prone areas. * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across, mainly across southern Maryland. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. Elsewhere across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 830 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Calvert * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Saturday morning until early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Calvert * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Saturday morning until early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Charles and King George Counties. * WHEN. From Saturday morning through Saturday evening, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 5.0 feet, water covers yards and roads in Dahlgren and on Cobb Island. Water covers the approach to Cobb Island bridge and begins limiting the ability to reach the mainland. Also water approaches structures near Cobb Island. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two and a half to three feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and evening high tides.

* WHAT. One and half to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in the District of Columbia. * WHEN. Late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure may be inundated. Some shoreline erosion may occur. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one to one and a half feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening high tides.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From Saturday evening through late Saturday night, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one to one and a half feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and evening high tides.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Calvert County. * WHEN. From Saturday morning through Saturday evening, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, water is expected to reach backyards near 9th Street in North Beach, and could approach 9th Street. At 4.0 feet, flooding of structures near Charles Street in Solomons is possible. Yards, parking lots, and portions of both Charles and Williams Street are covered by more than a foot of water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The worst flooding will occur with the Saturday morning and evening high tides.

* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt expected. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Friday to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* WHAT. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt expected. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft expected. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Friday to midnight EDT Saturday night. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Calvert * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Saturday morning until early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia **Tropical Storm Conditions Expected over Southern Maryland Friday Night Through Early Sunday** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 660 miles south of Washington DC - 29.5N 75.3W - Storm Intensity 40 mph - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 3 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move northward toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Friday before moving northward near the Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday through Sunday. The main threat will be a storm surge with inundation around 2 to 3 feet most likely for locations along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay as well as the shore of the tidal Potomac River. The highest water levels will be around times of high tide Saturday through Saturday night. Rainfall will most likely average between 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible. This may result in isolated instances of flooding, especially for low lying and flood prone areas. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. Tropical Storm force winds are most likely over southern Maryland and the nearby waters south of North Beach along the Chesapeake Bay and south of Cobb Island along the Tidal Potomac River. However, gale-force winds are expected along the waters father north along the Chesapeake Bay as well as the Tidal Potomac River. Gusty winds and a saturated ground may cause downed trees and power outages. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Moderate tidal inundation is possible along the shore of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River. - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN: Isolated instances of flooding are possible due to locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for flooding will be in low lying flood prone areas. - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across southern Maryland. * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across southern Maryland. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 5:30 AM, or sooner if conditions warrant.