* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Calvert * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through early Sunday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect flooding of low-lying roads and property. - ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to follow the instructions of local officials. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches possible - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

* WHAT. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE. Portions of central, northeast, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN. Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. The combination of a long period of gusty winds and increasingly saturated grounds from rain will result in a higher likelihood for downed trees across the area.

* WHAT. Northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft. * WHERE. Tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD, Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor, Chester River to Queenstown MD, and Eastern Bay. * WHEN. Until midnight EDT tonight. * IMPACTS. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels.

This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia **Tropical storm conditions ongoing across Southern Maryland** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 230 miles south of Washington DC or about 260 miles south of Baltimore MD - 35.6N 77.2W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement North or 355 degrees at 13 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Ophelia has made landfall in eastern North Carolina, and will continue tracking northward into southeast Virginia tonight. Ophelia will cross the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday and transition into a non-tropical area of low pressure. Storm surge is the main threat to our area, especially along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and the tidal Potomac River where inundation of 1 to 3 feet is expected. In particular, St. Mary's County could see significant impacts from surge where 2 to 3 feet of inundation is likely. The highest water levels will be around high tides Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 4 inches possible. This may result in isolated instances of flooding, especially for low-lying and flood prone areas. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. Tropical storm force wind gusts, likely between 50 and 60 mph, are expected over southern Maryland and the nearby waters south of North Beach MD along the Chesapeake Bay, and southeast of Cobb Island MD along the tidal Potomac River. Winds are expected to begin increasing late tonight, with the strongest winds from developing this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and a saturated ground will likely cause downed trees and power outages, especially along the immediate western shoreline of the Chesapeake Bay. A brief tornado or two cannot out be ruled out across southern Maryland this afternoon into tonight. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Potential significant impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River. If realized, these impacts include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN: Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding along and east of Interstate 95. If realized, these impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * WIND: Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding along and east of Interstate 95. If realized, these impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * TORNADOES: Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across Southern Maryland. If realized, these impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. Elsewhere across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery- powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body. Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear to return. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 6 PM this evening, or sooner if conditions warrant.

* WHAT. Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. In Maryland, Prince Georges County. In Virginia, Fairfax, Stafford and Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park Counties. * WHEN. Until 5 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

* WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in the District of Columbia. * WHEN. Until 7 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. The unprotected area on the Southwest Waterfront at the DC Seafood Market is expected to flood. Water is expected to approach parts of the Hains Point Loop Road, but it will likely be closed. Water is expected to approach buildings near King Street and Union Street. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Washington Channel is at 2:46 PM and 3:09 AM.

* WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The next high tide at Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy is at 1:13 AM and 12:28 PM.

* WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in the City of Alexandria and Arlington County. * WHEN. Until 6 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Shoreline inundation is expected along portions of the seawall adjacent to Ohio Drive and the Hains Point Loop Road and near the Tidal Basin. Water is expected to approach the curb near the intersection of King Street and Strand Street in Alexandria. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Alexandria is at 3:04 PM and 3:27 AM.

* WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Calvert County. * WHEN. Until 2 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, water is expected to reach backyards near 9th Street in North Beach, and could approach 9th Street. At 3.5 feet, yards are flooded near Charles Street and Williams Street in Solomons. Nearby parking lots and the streets themselves are covered by more than a half foot of water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The next high tide at Chesapeake Beach is at 11:26 PM and 11:40 AM. The next high tide at Solomons Island is at 9:37 PM and 9:41 AM.

* WHAT. Up to 103 feet of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Charles and King George Counties. * WHEN. Until 2 PM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches yards near Cobb Island and docks near Dahlgren. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Goose Bay is at 11:01 PM and 11:56 AM. The next high tide at Dahlgren is at 10:01 PM and 10:33 AM. The next high tide at Indian Head is at 2:32 PM and 2:55 AM.

CCA * WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN. From 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The next high tide at Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy is at 1:13 AM and 12:28 PM.

CCA * WHAT. Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. In Maryland, Prince Georges County. In Virginia, Fairfax, Stafford and Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park Counties. * WHEN. Until 5 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

CCA * WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in the City of Alexandria and Arlington County. * WHEN. Until 6 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. Water is expected to approach the curb near the intersection of King Street and Strand Street in Alexandria. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Alexandria is at 3:04 PM and 3:27 AM.

CCA * WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Charles and King George Counties. * WHEN. Until 2 PM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.5 feet, water reaches yards near Cobb Island and docks near Dahlgren. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Goose Bay is at 11:01 PM and 11:56 AM. The next high tide at Dahlgren is at 10:01 PM and 10:33 AM. The next high tide at Indian Head is at 2:32 PM and 2:55 AM.

CCA * WHAT. One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in the District of Columbia. * WHEN. Until 7 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. The unprotected area on the Southwest Waterfront at the DC Seafood Market is expected to flood. Water is expected to approach parts of the Hains Point Loop Road, but it will likely be closed. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides two to two and a half feet above normal. The next high tide at Washington Channel is at 2:46 PM and 3:09 AM.

CCA * WHAT. Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE. Shoreline in Calvert County. * WHEN. Until 2 AM EDT Sunday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS. At 3.0 feet, water is expected to reach backyards near 9th Street in North Beach, and could approach 9th Street. At 3.5 feet, yards are flooded near Charles Street and Williams Street in Solomons. Nearby parking lots and the streets themselves are covered by more than a half foot of water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Tides one and a half to two feet above normal. The next high tide at Chesapeake Beach is at 11:26 PM and 11:40 AM. The next high tide at Solomons Island is at 9:37 PM and 9:41 AM.

* WHAT. Flash flooding in urban areas caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE. District of Columbia. Portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. Portions of Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, King George, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN. From 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS. - As the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia moves north along or near the Interstate 95 corridor, it will produce an area of enhanced rainfall. This is expected to result in 2 to 3 inches of rain, with high end amounts of 4 inches possible. This heavy rainfall will occur in a 1 to 2 hour period, and could result in flash flooding within the urban I-95 corridor. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information