ESFMFL The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a broad area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico this morning. At the time of writing, this area has been give a 40% chance (medium) of development in the next seven days. As a robust mid-level trough advects southeastward across the continental United States, the disturbance will gradually lift out of the Bay of Campeche and slowly advect to the east-northeast/northeast over a period of a few days. With the approaching frontal boundary to the north and deep tropical moisture streaming northward in association with the broad area of low pressure, precipitable water values are forecast to be in the 2.2 to 2.6 range over South Florida during this time frame which is near the maximum climatological value for this time of year. A saturated airmass with a nearby area of slow moving low pressure sets the stage for the potential of heavy rainfall across South Florida beginning today with a peak window period from Sunday through mid/late next week. With persistent and repetitive rounds of heavy rainfall, urban and potentially flash flooding could be realized across the region. Given the uncertainty with the development of the tropical disturbance currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center, there is still the potential for significant forecast changes regarding potential rainfall totals, time-frame of greatest impacts as far as rainfall, and the locations that could see the highest amounts. Users are reminded to follow reliable sources such as the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center over the weekend into next week. If model and forecast trends continue, a Flood Watch may be issued at some point this weekend to account for the upcoming threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across South Florida.

ESFMFL The long range models are showing a disturbance over the Northwest Carribean Sea to move northwest into the Gulf of Mexico through middle of next week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 30 percent chance of development through middle of next week. There is also a low level trough that will remain over Central Florida this weekend into early next week. This weather pattern will allow for deep tropical moisture to work into South Florida late this weekend and remain over South Florida through most of next week. The PWAT values are forecast to be in the 2.2 to 2.6 range over South Florida during this time frame which is near the maximum value for this time of year. This can lead to heavy rainfall across South Florida late this weekend into next week with any showers or thunderstorms that do develop. Given the uncertainty with the development of the tropical disturbance currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center, there is still the potential for significant forecast changes regarding potential rainfall totals, time-frame of greatest impacts as far as rainfall, and the locations that could see the highest amounts. Users are reminded to follow reliable sources such as the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center over the weekend into next week.